What happened to Mark Buehrle?

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What happened to Mark Buehrle? (Originally published: 5-4-04)

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He is almost an entirely different pitcher compared to previous years. While his overall numbers are not terribly impressive (1-1 5.35 ERA), he has pitched well enough to be 3-1. Removing the Yankees explosion from the record, Buehrle's ERA is just 3.60. But it is the way he is going about things that makes him different.

His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, his home runs are up, and his hits allowed are way up. He is attacking hitters more often this year. The result has been a higher rate of Ks, but also many more hits allowed. Quite simply, he's getting beat more than he has in the past.

Opponents are hitting .289 off Buehrle through six starts. Opponents batting average on balls put in play, .359. That number is around 40 points higher than last year's (about 55 points higher than his 19-win season in 2002 and nearly 90 points higher than in 2001). So what does that mean?

Either opposing hitters are getting progressively luckier against Buehrle or they are starting to figure him out. If things continue, this will be the third straight year opponents' average against Buehrle has gone up. Three years straight is more than a fluke. It is a trend.

But the 2004 Mark Buehrle is different. He may be getting hit, but he's not walking people (averaging just 2.19 per 9 innings, his lowest rate since 2001). He's also striking out more than 2 batters per nine innings than he did in 2003. This is a good chance.

If Buehrle is going to put up the numbers he did a few years ago, he is going to have to keep the walks down and keep the strikeouts up. He can not compete relying on the opposing hitters making mistakes anymore. This is his fourth full year in the American League and hitters have figured him out.

A 5.35 ERA is not indicative of Buehrle's mediocre start, but the highest WHIP of his career (1.41) is. If he is unable cut down on balls put in play, he may not be the number two starter the White Sox believe he is.